Fancy tools won't make up for a bad forecasting strategy - The Gremlin

?A lot of business planning depends on forecasts,? says Kevin Phillips, MD of idu Software, ?And in the quest for ever more accurate and reliable forecasts, a lot of people turn to increasingly fancy tools and algorithms.??

But what if the problem with your forecasts isn?t the tools you are applying, but your whole approach to forecasting in the first place? If your basic strategy is wrong, no amount of fancy processing will improve the quality of your forecasts. In fact, it could make things worse, by masking the incorrectness of the data and giving a dangerous false sense of confidence.?

Of course no prediction of the future can ever be better than an educated guess ? but we can improve our guesses by improving the quality of the information we base them on. It?s as the old adage goes: Garbage in, garbage out. If your forecasts for next year are based on nothing more than this year?s figures, their value is low.?

The most critical question to ask before you embark on any forecasting exercise is this: How much can we expect next year to be just like this year? Close on its heels should come the next question:? How many things that are going to make next year different do we already know about, or can we find out? There will always be unknowns lurking around the next corner, but it makes sense to reduce their number as much as possible.?

The question about what might change for your business next year is not one that can be answered by the finance department alone. Sure, there are some high-level variables you can get from professional economic analysts; but when it comes to the very specific issues that might affect your business, you need to be turning to your own managers and operational staff.?

One can?t help wondering, for example, if whoever compiled Lonmin?s forecasts for this year was aware of the fact that a rival union to NUM was organising at their Marikana mine. If they had known, might they have factored in an increased risk of industrial unrest??

An easy first step is simply to ask the question: ?Is it reasonable for us to assume that you?ll match this year?s production next year?? If the answer is no, seize the opportunity to find out more. What does your sales staff know about what competitors might be planning? What do your production managers know about a supplier that?s facing difficulties??

Instead of using technology to put your numbers through fancy contortions, use it instead to solicit information from your staff, quickly and efficiently.?

It?s a bit more work to do this research than simply to run this year?s figures through a clever algorithm, of course ? but the benefits go beyond more well-founded forecasts. If people know that their input has been heard, they?re typically more inclined to commit themselves to turning those forecasts into reality ? and to contribute intelligence to next year?s forecast in turn.?

About idu

idu simplifies financial management for non-financial managers. Its flagship product, idu-Concept, provides easy, effective budgeting and financial reporting for medium-sized to large businesses, including many of South Africa?s top firms. ?idu-Concept integrates easily with ERP software, but unlike more cumbersome offerings, idu-Concept can be implemented quickly, requires little or no ongoing consulting fees and reduces budgeting cycles from months to weeks. For more information visit?www.idu.co.za.?

About Kevin Phillips

Kevin is an entrepreneur who has built a successful business, and so has a solid understanding of the challenges and questions business owners face. He has degrees in Commerce and Accounting, and started idu Software with partners James Smith and Wayne Claasen in 1998. Kevin is fast becoming a thought leader in his field and makes regular comment in the media about current affairs affecting business as well as accounting, finance, budgeting and software. He is a columnist for Accountancy South Africa, Entrepreneur and Tech Leader and has been featured in Sunday Times, Business Day, Enterprise Risk, Succeed and Cape Argus; as well as being a guest speaker on Radio 702, Kaya FM and Summit TV.?

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Kevin Phillips

Email:? kevin@idu.co.za

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Source: http://www.thegremlin.co.za/2012/10/30/fancy-tools-wont-make-up-for-a-bad-forecasting-strategy/

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Blood and astronaut pee: Creepy cargo returns to Earth

A privately built spacecraft is carrying some extra creepy cargo back to Earth from the International Space Station on Sunday: Astronaut blood and urine.

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Hundreds of blood and urine samples, some in bags and others in syringes, are returning to Earth aboard an unmanned Dragon space capsule that is wrapping up the first commercial cargo flight to the station by the private spaceflight company SpaceX. The Dragon capsule was due to leave the station just after 9 a.m. EDT.

"Bio samples, experiments, and hardware loaded into #Dragon; hatch is now closed. Next stop, Earth!" SpaceX officials wrote via Twitter Saturday.

You were able to watch the Dragon capsule undocking live today here on NASA TV. The webcast began at 7 a.m. ET, with the spacecraft splashing down at about 3:20 p.m. EDT.

Blood and astronaut pee
The gumdrop-shaped Dragon capsule is returning nearly 2,000 pounds of experiments and gear from the International Space Station, but NASA scientists said they are extra excited about the blood and urine samples coming home.

[ Astronaut Blood and Urine on Dragon Explained (Video) ]

There are 384 syringes of urine and 112 tubes of blood packed aboard Dragon, some of which have been waiting for delivery to scientists on the ground for more than a year. The samples were taken by space station astronauts as part of two ongoing experiments studying the nutrition of astronauts and how their diet can help protect against the negative health effects of long-term space travel, such as bone loss.

"While it may seem very strange to some folks, my typical line is that, 'It may be urine to you, but it's gold for us,'" NASA nutritionist Scott Smith of the Johnson Space Center said before the Dragon mission. "There's a lot of science that comes out of this."

Smith said his team has not returned any astronaut blood and urine samples from the space station since July 2011, the month of NASA's final space shuttle mission before the fleet was retired. Since then, the samples were stored in freezers awaiting the Dragon spacecraft. American astronauts, meanwhile, traveled to and from the station on Russian Soyuz capsules.

A round-trip American spacecraft

SpaceX's Dragon capsules are the first commercial spacecraft to visit the space station. This mission, called Commercial Resupply Service 1, is the first round-trip delivery flight under a $1.6 billion contract between the Hawthorne, Calif.-based SpaceX and NASA. It followed a successful test flight in May and at least 11 more missions are planned. [ Photos: Dragon's 1st Space Cargo Delivery ]

"The novelty at this point with SpaceX is that this is the first real return vehicle for these types of samples," Smith said. "We can get the crew home onboard the Soyuz, but the cargo capacity on Soyuz is quite limited."

Unmanned resupply spacecraft built by Russia, Japan and Europe are all designed for one-way trips. After making their deliveries, the spacecraft are intentionally burned up in Earth's atmosphere for disposal.

SpaceX is one of two private companies with NASA contracts to supply unmanned cargo deliveries. The other company is Orbital Sciences Corp. of Virginia, which has a $1.9 billion for at least eight resupply flights using its new Antares rocket and Cygnus spacecraft, which are also designed to be disposable. The first test of an Antares rocket is set for later this year.

Landmark spaceflight
SpaceX, short for Space Exploration Technologies, launched the current Dragon space mission on Oct. 7 from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida. The robotic spacecraft arrived at the International Space Station on Oct. 10 to deliver nearly 1,000 pounds of supplies to the orbiting lab's Expedition 33 crew.

Today, the station's six-person crew used a robotic arm to pluck the Dragon capsule free of its docking port on the bottom of the orbiting lab, and then set it free so it can re-enter Earth's atmosphere. The capsule is expected to splash down in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Southern California.

A SpaceX recovery team will retrieve the capsule and transport it to a facility in McGregor, Texas, so it can be unpacked. The blood and urine samples and the rest of the cargo will then be delivered to NASA's Johnson Space Center in Houston.

In addition to the biological samples for NASA, the Dragon capsule also flew 23 student experiments to the station as part of an educational program. The student experiments, which are encased in small glows stick-like containers, were activated by the station crew and are being returned to Earth for analysis.

"This flight is really all-out, maxed out, fulfilling our research needs," NASA's space station program scientist Julie Robinson said.

Visit SPACE.com today for complete coverage of SpaceX's Dragon capsule departure from the space station and return to Earth.

You can follow SPACE.com Managing Editor Tariq Malik on Twitter @tariqjmalik and SPACE.com on Twitter @Spacedotcom. We're also on Facebook & Google+.

? 2012 Space.com. All rights reserved. More from Space.com.

Source: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49586181/ns/technology_and_science-space/

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Connecticut Senate race a wrestling match for female votes (reuters)

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MassPrivateI: Cell phone privacy? We don't need a search warrant ...

The feds want the location records of MetroPCS and T-Mobile cell phone customers in Texas without bothering to show that a crime was even committed. The U.S. Attorney in Houston asserts that cell phone users have no reasonable expectation of privacy as to their location, and he wants to have the data without showing a search warrant.

So far, a federal magistrate and a federal judge have said "no."

But the feds persist in a live case before the Fifth Circuit federal appeals court. In Re: Applications of the USA, No. 11-20884. The authorities assert that getting your location from a cell phone company is like asking for your recent charges from a credit card issuer, or requesting your latest transactions from your bank, or getting business records from your landlord.

It's not an invasion of privacy for a routine investigation, they say.

Fortunately the Electronic Frontier Foundation, the Electronic Privacy Information Center and the ACLU argue the contrary -- that people do, in fact, want their cell phone location to be private. For example, iPhone users raised hell after Apple revealed in 2011 that the phones stored a 10-month record of a user's location. The company revised its operating system to correct the problem.

Months of Data About Your Location

Did you know that every time you use your cell phone to check email, send a text or make a call, your cell phone relays your location to the cell phone company? And that the company keeps your data for months? 88 percent of adult Americans own cell phones, and the average person uses it 50 times a day.

With your location data the feds can build a profile of your social, political and personal life. They will know your movements, habits, relationships, activities and religious affiliation. Shouldn't the government have to show probable cause that a crime was committed? Shouldn't it have to get a search warrant?

In fact:

• Customers don't knowingly or voluntarily disclose their location to cell phone companies. It's generated automatically.


• Customers can't control the type and amount of data collected. The date, the time, the duration and the location of every call are recorded.


• Cell companies keep months of comprehensive location records about customers.


• Customers are not notified when their records are handed over to law enforcement without probable cause.

A recent survey found that 77 percent of cell phone users did not want app developers to know their location, according to Harris Interactive -- much less the federal authorities.

It's time to draw the line: the Fourth Amendment gives you an expectation of privacy about your location when you use your cell phone. This is personal information and the feds should have to show a search warrant to get it.

Regardless of how the Fifth Circuit rules, this issue will have to be decided by the U.S. Supreme Court. I reported here two months ago that the Sixth Circuit federal appeals court gave the government access to cell phone location records without a warrant. That conflicts with a 2010 decision by the Third Circuit federal appeals court, which required the government to get a search warrant for location records.

Americans are losing their right to privacy every day. Your right to be free of unreasonable searches will be badly damaged if the government can track you down without even showing a crime was committed. Nobody signed up for a two-year contract to be monitored when they got a cell phone.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/larry-bodine/the-legal-battle-over-cel_b_2003190.html

Source: http://massprivatei.blogspot.com/2012/10/cell-phone-privacy-we-dont-need-search.html

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Samsung makes $7.4 billion in Q3 profits, surpasses expectations

Samsung set the bar a little lower than the final mark when it told investors its expectations earlier this month, posting $7.4 billion in operating profits for Q3 and $5.97 billion in net income. This handily bests the $7.28 billion profit it told investors to expect, nearly doubling what it made over the same period last year. Why the jump? You can blame the Galaxy S III, which increased shipments "significantly due to global expansion," the company says. Indeed, smartphone sales are credited to Sammy's quarter over quarter leap in revenue. Consumer electronics sales also boosted profits a fair deal, achieving "industry leading profitability" in the TV market, according to Samsung, who cited growth both in the consumer space, and in the sales of OLED panels for televisions, tablets and high-end smartphones.

The company's semiconductor sales, on the other hand, dropped by eight-percent in the face of weak PC demands. Samsung expects demand for PC DRAM and other high value-added chip products to remain weak, but optimistically notes that the sector is still profitable, and may pick up as new devices come to market. Got the basics? Great -- dive into the details and charts at the source link below, or read on for Sammy's official Q3 press release.

Continue reading Samsung makes $7.4 billion in Q3 profits, surpasses expectations

Filed under: Cellphones, Misc, Home Entertainment, Samsung

Samsung makes $7.4 billion in Q3 profits, surpasses expectations originally appeared on Engadget on Thu, 25 Oct 2012 20:02:00 EDT. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Fire Up My Thyroid and What You Need to Know About It | Mr Mac's ...

As a woman who still feels worn out after getting twelve hours of sleep, you may get a great deal of benefit from the four step Thyroid Healing Program. Do you eat well and work out often but still have trouble shedding weight? Are you constantly dealing with depression and aren?t able to pull yourself out of it, suffering from a foggy brain or experiencing frequent anxiety attacks. Is your sexual desire non existent and are you constantly feeling cold? Do you try to tell people what you?re feeling but get met with blank looks, and do you feel like all of the things you have tried for helping yourself have all failed? These are all signs of thyroid problems which means that you might benefit from talking to the folks who have been through all of the things that you are presently experiencing.

Fire Up My Thyroid explains the four steps that you must take to help heal both Hashimoto?s Disease and Hypothyroidism. This is a program that?s already been well received and is taught by a renowned Naturopath with an integrated MD and certification in nutrition coaching. If you think that there is more than just taking medications and your doctor doesn?t have any interest of offering you any other healing solutions, like alternative medication, this is the program that might help you the best. You might have been told that you require more sleep, to go on holiday, but mainly to take anti-depressants. proactol You know there must be something better but you just aren?t sure what that is or how to get it.

Are you totally over the having to go to the doctor who just tells you what you feel and then says that your symptoms are because of anything besides a thyroid condition? Modern medicine doesn?t accept that nutrition is a component in this disease so you can?t go to your physician for this. The absolute most undiagnosed problem in women are thyroid issues. Sad to say, because you do not have stable blood sugar levels, you?re not going to feel that your adrenals are completely tired. Even after you have read all about the subject, there are a number of books and web sites on the Internet and the information you find is completely contradictory and absolutely complex. best creatine supplement It is likely you don?t even see that your emotional problems or stress are because you are experiencing thyroid problems.

Fire Up My Thyroid teaches you how to help your thyroid get back its normality in just four simple steps (which took five years to master). The first step is the master step in which you find out about your thyroid?this is typically information that your health care provider is not going to make the time to inform you. Nourish is your next step, and that?s where you discover the foods that you have to eat so that you can fire up your thyroid. The third step is detox, where all of the poisons which damage the function of your thyroid are eliminated from your body. raspberry ketone diet Step four is boost it up, where the proper emotions, supplements, and herbs are disclosed.

The Fire Up My Thyroid program is a little spendy, at $148 but it has a sixty day full money back guarantee. When was the last time your physician charged you lower than that, and gave you a refund when the recommendations you were given didn?t work. You ought to definitely try it out as it might just be exactly what you have been missing.

tag: Nourish, taking

Source: http://mrmac.us/fire-up-my-thyroid-and-what-you-need-to-know-about-it/

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Cancer-Free Coloradans Sought For Research Project ? CBS Denver

DENVER (CBS4)- If you have never been diagnosed with cancer you could have a chance to prevent it.

The American Cancer Society is looking for a few thousand Coloradans to take part in one of its biggest research projects ever conducted.

Cigarette smoke and secondhand smoke are linked to lung cancer. Obesity may increase your chances of dying from cancer. Those key findings were discovered through two major studies of adults in the U.S.

Now the American Cancer Society is in the final push for study number three.

?We want to reach 300,000 nationwide participants by December 2013,? said American Cancer Society spokesman Shane Ferraro.

Researchers will follow men and women between the ages of 30 and 65 who have never been diagnosed with cancer.

?To me if you could do one simple thing to prevent cancer, would you do it? Because this is it,? said volunteer Teresa Holladay.

Holladay is a volunteer encouraging people to sign up for the study because she suffered a great loss.

?I lost my sister last year to cancer and this is one nasty disease,? said Holladay.

Valerie Holladay was 52 years old when she died of cervical cancer.

Teresa is recruiting any way she can, including through a video email, ?Hi, this is Teresa. I?m just popping in to see if you?re still interested in kicking cancer?s butt.?

The goal is to enroll 2,200 Coloradans. Those who volunteer will sign a consent form, give a blood sample, get waist measurements and complete a survey every few years.

The study will examine how genetics, lifestyle and the environment influence cancer risk. It?s a minimum 20 year commitment.

Those wishing to take part in the cancer study can register online at cps3Colorado.org.

Source: http://denver.cbslocal.com/2012/10/25/cancer-free-coloradans-sought-for-research-project/

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Why Apple?s Packed Event (And 4th-Gen iPad) Make Sense

Apple announced a cornucopia of new products at its media event on Tuesday in San Jose, California. Most notable were the updated iMacs, the 13-inch Retina display MacBook Pro, the highly anticipated iPad mini, and the completely surprising fourth-generation iPad.

Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/GearFactor/~3/Qn0_Had6a1Q/

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Egg Freezing Enters Clinical Mainstream

Image: RWJMS IVF Laboratory / Wikimedia Commons

From Nature magazine

Egg freezing is no longer an experimental procedure, according to the American Society for Reproductive Medicine (ASRM), which on 22 October issued new guidelines on the controversial practice. The change in policy is expected to accelerate the growth of clinics that offer egg freezing to women who face fertility-damaging treatment for cancer or other conditions, and to women wishing to delay having a baby ? although the society stopped short of endorsing the procedure for that purpose.

More than 900 babies have been born using the technique, which the ASRM called ?experimental? in 2008. With that designation, the society approved of the use of egg freezing only in clinical trials overseen by an institution review board (IRB). Despite the ASRM policy, clinics have increasingly been offering the technique outside of this framework as a clinical service for a fee. Now the society is effectively giving such clinics a green light, a development that is likely to encourage consumer groups advocating for insurance providers to cover the procedure.

?This will open up the procedure for many, many people,? says Samantha Pfeifer, an associate professor of obstetrics and gynecology at the University of Pennsylvania, in Philadelphia, who headed the committee charged with making the recommendation. She adds, ?There are enough preliminary data to say that this technique is safe.?

The committee removed the ?experimental? label after analyzing more than 100 studies assessing the health of eggs after the procedure and the outcome of births. The committee concluded that there have been no reported increases in chromosome abnormalities or birth defects among children born using oocyte cryopreservation, the technical term for the procedure.

But the committee also noted that the data so far are incomplete ? only four randomized clinical trials have been conducted using the technique. And while those studies suggest that the technique results in successful pregnancy in young women at the same rate as assisted reproduction with ?fresh? oocytes, observational studies suggest the success rate is lower. Because the technique of freezing the large and fragile cells is relatively new, nothing is known about long-term effects on offspring that result from the method. Some studies suggest that babies born using assisted reproductive technologies are at an increased risk for certain rare disorders ? the neurological condition Angelman syndrome, for example ? that result from changes in the chemical modifications to DNA known as ?epigenetic marks?.

The safety and success rates of the procedure have been the focus of heated debates among reproductive biologists. At the ASRM annual meeting in San Diego this week, for instance, Pfeifer will be facing off against Nicole Noyes, head of a clinic affiliated with New York University that offers the procedure. The topic will be whether younger women should consider freezing their eggs for the future, says Pfeifer.

Despite the need for more research, the new guidelines will help clinicians counsel patients about the technique?s safety and potential to result in a pregnancy, says Theresa Woodruff, chief of the Division of Fertility Preservation at the Feinberg School of Medicine at Northwestern University in Chicago, ?It?s a good, measured step,? she says. The society announced its new policy on 19 October and published its new report yesterday in the journal Fertility and Sterility.

There were not enough data for the committee to recommend the procedure for women nearing the end of their reproductive years who wish to preserve their eggs for future use, says Pfeifer. And the data so far suggest that the success rates of the procedure decline with maternal age. Nonetheless, the use of egg freezing for delaying reproduction is a potentially huge growth area ? many clinics are already offering these services.

Source: http://rss.sciam.com/click.phdo?i=0017f30cfb34a14b2684a1a41a4ffdb0

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Fact check: Obama ad inflates jobs claim

In a new TV ad, President Obama makes an inflated claim to have added 5.2 million new jobs. The total added during his time in office is actually about 325,000.

In the ad, the president says ?over 5 million new jobs? while the figure ?5.2 million? appears on screen. But that?s a doubly misleading figure.

• Viewers would need to pay close attention to the on-screen graphic to know that the ad refers only to employment gains starting in March 2010, omitting the 4.3 million jobs that were lost in the first year of Obama?s term.
• And there?s no way a viewer would know that the total counts only private-sector jobs, omitting continuing losses in government employment.

According to the most recent employment figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the economy has eked out a net gain of 325,000 jobs since January 2009, when Obama took office. And that?s giving credit for roughly 386,000 jobs that the BLS has announced, on a preliminary basis, that it will be adding to this year?s employment totals next year, as a result of its routine annual ?benchmarking? analysis.

Looking only at private-sector jobs, it?s true that the total has risen just under 5.2 million since February 2010 ? provided that credit is given for roughly 453,000 private-sector jobs to be added next year through the BLS benchmarking process. But over Obama?s entire term, those private-sector jobs have gone up only 967,000, even counting benchmarking additions.

Other claims in the ad are essentially accurate: Exports are rising; home values have begun to recover; U.S. automakers are making profits, for example. And viewers can judge for themselves how they feel about the ?plan for the next four years? that the president briefly outlines in the ad, which is couched in broad generalities.

But viewers who follow the ad?s invitation to visit an Obama website for further information will find some false and misleading claims. There, the campaign, for example, states that ?Mitt Romney criticized the end of the Iraq war as ?tragic,? and has offered no plan withdraw our troops from Afghanistan.?

In fact, as we?ve reported before, Romney did not call the end of the Iraq war ?tragic.? He used that word to describe the president?s pace of troop withdrawal, not ending a war. And more important, there is no longer any difference between Romney?s position and Obama?s plan to pull all U.S. combat troops out of Afghanistan by the end of 2014. Romney, whose position has evolved from criticism to unqualified acceptance, said during the final presidential debate on the night before the ad was released: ?[W]hen I?m president, we?ll make sure we bring our troops out by the end of 2014.?

? Brooks Jackson

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Source: http://news.yahoo.com/obama-inflated-jobs-claim-184609682--politics.html

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Gay GOP group: Vote for Romney, he hates you (Americablog)

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Straightforward Approaches Concerning How To Live Your Greatest ...

There are lots of stuff that are performed within a person?s existence that results in them sensation like they would like to be somebody else. It is actually easy to make changes in your own life that may really allow you to develop being a man or woman. If you can take the time to read these tips and find out the helpful tips on this page, you are sure to begin with the journey to self improvement.

A key to success is recognizing the visible difference among items you can management and things you can?t. You can not anticipate what will afflict you, nevertheless, you can control the way you respond to it. Learn how to be confident and you may find techniques across the roadblocks in life. Don?t overcome yourself up around faults, gain knowledge from them than go forward.

A great self improvement suggestion is to usually have integrity. If you wish individuals to stick to and believe in you, you should be a particular person with great key beliefs. If you some thing to destroy your integrity, you may drop your pursuing. For that reason, you should try to protect your reliability by any means probable.

Before positive self improvement may appear, you should confess that there exists a gap between where you stand now and where your supreme placement in life is. Failing to acknowledge that this gap is available, stops any further actions from going on and so, simply leaves you with a stand up nevertheless.

Self improvement is difficult operate, so remember to refresh your personal battery power. Take the time to be around your self. Doing exercises is a wonderful approach to very clear your brain of your stress of everyday existence, and lets you process self-discipline. You?ll feel happier about on your own and build higher energy to get by your time!

If you find that there exists one individual particularly that really becomes beneath your pores and skin, avoid them whenever possible once you feel like you might be anxious. Gradually you might be able to get an optimistic means to fix the feelings you may have on them.

To help keep your determination robust, keep in mind that evaluating yourself to others can be a detrimental process. Every person comes from an alternative standpoint, as well as your placement in everyday life is different. Which means that your accomplishments are only that ? yours. You ought to have pleasure in what you possess already completed and merely let you to ultimately be inspired by other individuals, rather than experiencing intimidated.

To assist you to increase your self individually, exercising every day is vital. Physical exercise may help you increase your concentrate, improve your capacity in a variety of sporting activities and generally boost your well-being and health. Workout is also factor to personal development given that exercise emits hormones, which can be a mood booster and advertise an even more positive prospect on daily life.

Now you have taken some time to read via this post and discover some methods to achieve some self improvement, you have considered the first task to turning into the latest you. Make sure you truly implement these guidelines for your lifestyle and you may definitely be on the way to contentment.

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Syrian violence spills into Jordan, Lebanon

BEIRUT (AP) ? A Jordanian soldier was killed in clashes with armed militants trying to cross the border into Syria on Monday and sectarian clashes overnight in Lebanon left two dead as Syria's civil war spilled into neighboring countries.

Jordanian Information Minister Sameeh Maaytah said the soldier was the first killed in violence related to Syria's civil war. He died in clashes with militants trying to illegally enter Syria to join rebels fighting President Bashar Assad's regime. Maaytah did not say whether the militants were Jordanians or foreign fighters trying to jump into the fray in the neighboring country.

A number of foreign Islamists have been fighting in Syria alongside the rebels. Jordan's banned Salafi movement ? which promotes an ultraconservative brand of Islam ? has sent several fighters to Syria in past months and Jordanian border patrols have caught some of them recently.

In Lebanon, troops launched a major security operation to open all roads and force gunmen off the streets, trying to contain an outburst of violence set off by the assassination of a top intelligence official who was a powerful opponent of Syria. Sectarian clashes overnight killed at least two people.

Sporadic cracks of gunfire could be heard in the Lebanese capital as troops began the operation a day after the funeral for the slain official, Brig. Gen. Wissam al-Hassan.

Opponents of Syria have blamed the regime in Damascus for the al-Hassan's killing in a Beirut car bomb on Friday. With Lebanon already tense and deeply divided over the civil war next door, the assassination has threatened to drag the country back into the kind of sectarian strife that plagued it for decades ? much of it linked to Syria.

In the Lebanese capital, soldiers backed by armored personal carriers with heavy machine guns took up position on major thoroughfares and dismantled roadblocks. At times, troops exchanged gunfire with Sunni gunmen.

Al-Hassan was a Sunni who challenged Syria and its powerful Lebanese ally, the Shiite militant group Hezbollah. The uprising in Syria is dominated by the Sunni majority fighting Syrian President Bashar Assad, who like many in his regime is a member of the Alawite sect ? an offshoot of Shiite Islam. Lebanon and Syria share similar sectarian divides that have fed tensions in both countries.

Most of Lebanon's Sunnis have backed Syria's mainly Sunni rebels, while Lebanese Shiites tend to back Assad.

The assassination has imperiled Lebanon's fragile political balance. Many politicians blamed Damascus for the killing and angry protesters tried to storm the government palace after al-Hassan's funeral on Sunday, venting their rage at leaders they consider puppets of a murderous Syrian regime. But were pushed back by troops who opened fire in the air and lobbed volleys of tear gas.

Meanwhile, cease-fire efforts by U.N. and Arab League envoy to Syria Lakhdar Brahimi appeared to be faltering.

Syria's state-run news agency SANA said Damascus supports the truce proposal, but would not commit to halting fire during a four-day Muslim holiday until Western countries and their Gulf allies stop supporting rebels and halt their weapons supplies to the anti-regime fighters.

Brahimi met with Assad in Damascus on Sunday as part of his push for a cease-fire between rebels and government forces for the Eid al-Adha holiday, which begins Oct. 26. He told reporters following a closed-door meeting that he also had held talks earlier with opposition groups inside and outside the country and received "promises" but not a "commitment" from them to honor the cease-fire.

SANA said Assad assured Brahimi that he supported his effort, but that any political solution to the conflict must be "based on the principle of halting terrorism, a commitment from the countries involved in supporting, arming and harboring terrorists in Syria to stop doing such acts."

More than 33,000 people have been killed since the uprising started in March last year.

Syrian authorities blame the revolt on a foreign conspiracy and accuse Saudi Arabia and Qatar, along with the U.S, other Western countries and Turkey, of funding, training and arming the rebels, whom they describe as "terrorists."

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/syrian-violence-spills-jordan-lebanon-113714536.html

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How To Improve Your Business Presentation Skills: I | purpleleap

This article is designed to help you improve your business presentation skills by looking at the presentation from the point of view of the purpose, the preparation, the organization, the support and the delivery.

1. Presentation:
   1. Determine the Purpose of the objective/purpose of the presentation.
      1. General purpose
         • Informative Transfer of information from speaker to audience
         • Persuasive Attempt to change attitude, belief, or action
      2. Realistically define the results expected:
         • Realistic in scope
         • Realistic in view of receivers? knowledge, culture, status, etc.
         • Realistic in view of possible actions by receiver
         • Realistic in terms of what you can reasonably expect to accomplish
      3. Specific outcomes you desire from the communication. Very specifically complete the following: When the presentation is finished, the audience will:
      4. Hidden objectives of the presentation that the presenter is aware of but does not share with the audience. Sometimes the presenter has objectives that the presenter chooses not to share with the audience. It is important that the presenter is aware of them and prepares the speech accordingly. For example, if you were training on a safety procedure. You might have as your obvious purpose to inform the audience about the safety procedure. Your hidden objective might be to persuade the audience to follow the new safety procedure.

Source: Internet

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By PurpleLeap ? Posted in Education, Purpleleap ? Tagged business skills, Communication Skills, Education, Engineering, Hiring, IT, Job, Management, MBA, PurpleLeap, www.purpleleap.biz, www.purpleleap.co, www.purpleleap.com, www.purpleleap.net

Source: http://purpleleap.wordpress.com/2012/10/22/how-to-improve-your-business-presentation-skills-i/

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Romney ups criticism of Obama's second-term plans

Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, center, talks with foreign policy adviser Dan Senor, left, and his vice presidential running mate, Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., before boarding his campaign plane at Daytona International Airport, Saturday, Oct. 20, 2012, in Daytona Beach, Fla. (AP Photo/ Evan Vucci)

Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, center, talks with foreign policy adviser Dan Senor, left, and his vice presidential running mate, Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., before boarding his campaign plane at Daytona International Airport, Saturday, Oct. 20, 2012, in Daytona Beach, Fla. (AP Photo/ Evan Vucci)

Republican vice presidential candidate, Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis. gestures while speaking at a campaign rally at the Valley View Campgrounds in Belmont, Ohio, Saturday, Oct. 20, 2012, where he talked about economic conditions and the coal industry. (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)

Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, left, addresses supporters as his vice presidential running mate Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., listens at the Daytona Beach Historic Bandshell during the Romney Ryan Victory Rally in Daytona Beach, Fla., Friday, Oct. 19, 2012. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)

In this photo provided by Kathy Hackshaw, President Barack Obama greets a child during a campaign rally in Fairfax, Va., Friday, Oct. 19, 2012. (AP Photo/Courtesy Kathy Hackshaw) MANDATORY CREDIT

First lady Michelle Obama speaks to Friday, October 19, 2012, during a campaign event in Racine, Wis. About 2,500 people gathered to see her speak at Memorial Hall. (AP Photo/Journal Times, Gregory Shaver)

DELRAY BEACH, Fla. (AP) ? Heading into the campaign's final weeks, Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney is upping his criticism of President Barack Obama's plans for a second term, accusing the Democrat of failing to tell Americans what he would do with four more years. The Obama campaign is aggressively disputing the notion, claiming it's Romney who hasn't provided specific details to voters.

At campaign events, in a new ad and fundraising appeal out Saturday, Romney is setting up the closing weeks as a choice between what he says is a "small" campaign that's offering little new policy and his own ambitious plan to fundamentally change America's tax code and entitlement programs.

The new Romney ad criticizes the president's policies on debt, health care, taxes, energy and Medicare, arguing that Obama is simply offering more of the same. The campaign did not say where the spot would air. The fundraising appeal hits Obama for raising taxes and increasing the debt by $5.5 trillion, repeating the lack-of-agenda criticism.

"Although President Obama won't lay out his plan for a second term, we already know what it will be ? a repeat of the last four years. We can't afford four more years of crushing debt and wasteful spending," Romney says in the letter, adding he has a clear plan to put America on a path to prosperity.

Both Obama and Romney retreated from the campaign trail Saturday to bone up on foreign policy, leaving the work of courting voters to their running mates.

Vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan on Saturday continued the no-agenda theme against Obama at campaign stops near Pittsburgh and in Belmont, Ohio.

"He's not even telling you what he plans on doing," Ryan told a rain-soaked crowd of about 1,100 people at a campground in coal-rich eastern Ohio.

Obama's campaign disputes the notion that the president hasn't outlined a detailed second-term agenda, pointing to his calls for immigration reform, ending tax breaks for upper income earners, fully implementing his health care overhaul and ending the war in Afghanistan.

In a statement sent after Romney's Friday night event, Obama campaign spokesman Danny Kanner ticked through a series of policy items, calling them "just part of President Obama's agenda for a second term."

Obama, at the Democratic National Convention, called for creating 1 million manufacturing jobs over the next four years with a mix of corporate tax rate cuts and innovation and training programs. He has set a goal of cutting the growth of college tuition in half over the next 10 years. He also has called for Congress to pass proposals he made last year that include includes tax credits for companies that hire new workers and funding for local municipalities to hire more teachers, police officers and firefighters.

As for why Republicans would back the same proposals they have already voted against, Obama has told supporters he expects his re-election would "break the fever" on Capitol Hill that led to gridlock during his first term.

Vice President Joe Biden made a diagnosis of his own on Saturday, saying Ryan had caught "Romnesia," the word Obama used the day before to describe what he calls Romney's changing polices.

"That man is contagious," Biden said of Romney, to loud cheers at a campaign stop in St. Augustine, Fla. "Congressman Ryan caught it as well."

He said the Wisconsin Congressman is now giving a new explanation for cuts in the budget he oversaw and passed in the House.

The president's aides are particularly irked by the questions about Obama's second-term agenda, because they say it's Romney who has failed to provide voters with details. They point to his refusal to provide specifics about his tax plan or outline what he would replace the president's health care overhaul with if he makes good on his promise to repeal the federal law.

An independent group backing Obama, though, is trying to renew attention on Romney's tenure at the helm of the private equity firm Bain Capital. The group, Priorities USA Action, is re-airing an ad about an AMPAD plant in Marion, Ind. That spot features former employee Mike Earnest recalling being told to build a stage from which officials of the office supply company later announced mass layoffs.

He says, "It was like building my own coffin." That ad first aired in battleground states in the summer.

Romney aides have said AMPAD was a struggling business to begin with, and Bain overall created many more jobs than were lost.

That ad will air in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, Virginia and Wisconsin. The new campaign will be in addition to a $30 million effort against Romney policy proposals, the group said.

Monday's debate in Boca Raton, Fla., with its focus on international affairs, is the third and final between the two rivals and comes just 15 days before the election.

Obama left Friday for Camp David, the presidential hideaway in Maryland's Catoctin Mountains, where he is huddled with advisers preparing for the debate. Among those with him are White House senior adviser David Plouffe and senior campaign strategist David Axelrod. Aides say Obama was also being assisted by National Security Adviser Tom Donilon and former Obama aide Karen Dunn.

Romney was also with aides preparing for the debate, spending the weekend in Florida.

Both campaigns are heavily targeting Florida and its 29 electoral votes ? the most of any tossup state. It was the second day of a two-day Florida swing for Biden, which overlapped a two-day swing by Ryan. Romney's wife, Ann, was also in Florida Saturday and First Lady Michelle Obama planned a visit Monday, ahead of the presidential debate that night in Boca Raton. The president is planning at least two days of campaigning in Florida after the debate.

Monday's 90-minute debate will be moderated by Bob Schieffer of CBS News. It will be similar to the first debate, with both men standing at lecterns on a stage. Schieffer has listed five subject areas, with more time devoted to the Middle East and terrorism than any other topic.

While the economy has been the dominant theme of the election, foreign policy has attracted renewed media attention in the aftermath of the attack on the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi, Libya, that killed four Americans, including U.S. Ambassador Chris Stevens.

Obama had ranked well with the public on his handling of international issues and in fighting terrorism, especially following the death of Osama bin Laden. But the administration's response to the Libya attack and questions over levels of security at the consulate have given Romney and his Republican allies an issue with which to raise doubts about Obama's foreign policy leadership.

Romney has spent large amounts of time off the campaign trail to prepare for the upcoming foreign policy debate. Aides say the additional time preparing is well-spent even if it comes at the expense of public events.

___

Kuhnhenn reported from Washington. Associated Press writers Julie Pace and Ken Thomas in Washington and Ann Sanner in Belmont, Ohio, contributed to this report.

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/3d281c11a96b4ad082fe88aa0db04305/Article_2012-10-20-Presidential%20Campaign/id-958a1d9b0a574a20bedfd828e0fb9adf

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AAP president Dr. Robert Block reflects on changes in pediatric health

Public release date: 20-Oct-2012
[ | E-mail | Share ]

Contact: Debbie Jacobson
djacobson@aap.org
847-434-7084
American Academy of Pediatrics

NEW ORLEANS Robert Block, MD, FAAP, outgoing president of the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP), will address attendees at the AAP National Conference & Exhibition Saturday, Oct. 20, at 10:40 a.m. during the opening plenary session at the Ernest N. Morial Convention Center in New Orleans. Dr. Block will lead a discussion on the "soul of a pediatrician," and how a pediatrician's devotion and compassion for children must persist as the world of medicine changes around us.

Dr. Block will also focus on his yearlong theme of "all adults were once children," to promote the value of investment in children's health, education, and overall well-being. Dr. Block will also discuss advancements made over the past year in Medicaid improvements, gun safety, disaster preparedness, and drugs and medical devices for children.

"One of the first things I realized after taking office is that pediatricians must recognize change and we must manage that change in order to succeed in our advocacy for children," said Dr. Block. "Our work on early brain and child development, epigenetics, and a science-based economic approach is so important to protect children as they follow the path of adult life. I am so proud of the work accomplished by the AAP during the past year that emphasizes our commitment to the importance of quality, comprehensive pediatric care for all children."

Dr. Block has served as 2011-2012 president of the AAP. He received his medical degree from the University of Pennsylvania, and completed his pediatric residency at the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia. He has been a member of the Oklahoma University College of Medicine faculty since 1975.

Dr. Block is a diplomat of the American Board of Pediatrics, a past president of the Oklahoma chapter of the AAP, and former member and chair of the AAP Committee on Child Abuse and Neglect. He is a former member and chair of the United States Advisory Commission on Childhood Vaccines. Dr. Block is the immediate past president and current board chair of the Academy on Violence and Abuse, a national organization focused on increasing health care professionals' education and academic research on the health effects of violence and abuse.

###

The American Academy of Pediatrics is an organization of 60,000 primary care pediatricians, pediatric medical subspecialists and pediatric surgical specialists dedicated to the health, safety and well being of infants, children, adolescents and young adults. For more information, visit www.aap.org.

---

[ | E-mail | Share ]

?

AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert! system.

Public release date: 20-Oct-2012
[ | E-mail | Share ]

Contact: Debbie Jacobson
djacobson@aap.org
847-434-7084
American Academy of Pediatrics

NEW ORLEANS Robert Block, MD, FAAP, outgoing president of the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP), will address attendees at the AAP National Conference & Exhibition Saturday, Oct. 20, at 10:40 a.m. during the opening plenary session at the Ernest N. Morial Convention Center in New Orleans. Dr. Block will lead a discussion on the "soul of a pediatrician," and how a pediatrician's devotion and compassion for children must persist as the world of medicine changes around us.

Dr. Block will also focus on his yearlong theme of "all adults were once children," to promote the value of investment in children's health, education, and overall well-being. Dr. Block will also discuss advancements made over the past year in Medicaid improvements, gun safety, disaster preparedness, and drugs and medical devices for children.

"One of the first things I realized after taking office is that pediatricians must recognize change and we must manage that change in order to succeed in our advocacy for children," said Dr. Block. "Our work on early brain and child development, epigenetics, and a science-based economic approach is so important to protect children as they follow the path of adult life. I am so proud of the work accomplished by the AAP during the past year that emphasizes our commitment to the importance of quality, comprehensive pediatric care for all children."

Dr. Block has served as 2011-2012 president of the AAP. He received his medical degree from the University of Pennsylvania, and completed his pediatric residency at the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia. He has been a member of the Oklahoma University College of Medicine faculty since 1975.

Dr. Block is a diplomat of the American Board of Pediatrics, a past president of the Oklahoma chapter of the AAP, and former member and chair of the AAP Committee on Child Abuse and Neglect. He is a former member and chair of the United States Advisory Commission on Childhood Vaccines. Dr. Block is the immediate past president and current board chair of the Academy on Violence and Abuse, a national organization focused on increasing health care professionals' education and academic research on the health effects of violence and abuse.

###

The American Academy of Pediatrics is an organization of 60,000 primary care pediatricians, pediatric medical subspecialists and pediatric surgical specialists dedicated to the health, safety and well being of infants, children, adolescents and young adults. For more information, visit www.aap.org.

---

[ | E-mail | Share ]

?

AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert! system.

Source: http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2012-10/aaop-apd101312.php

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Some Smart Money is Already Exiting the Single Family Rental ...

Some Smart Money is Already Exiting the Single Family Rental Landgrab

Reuters describes how one of the funds that was first to get on the ?buy single family homes out of foreclosure and rent them? bandwagon has decided to exit. Ochs Ziff is selling its comparatively small (300 home) Northern California portfolio at a profit. This is an intriguing development given the widespread bullish beliefs about this opportunity (it was deemed to be the best opportunity over the next year at a mortgage/real estate conference I attended a few weeks ago) versus the fact that Ochs-Ziff is generally seen as a savvy operator. The talk has been that there are operators (and I saw one present) who can offer maintenance services on a regional basis to absentee landlords. So why did they exit? It appears the returns weren?t as juicy as they imagined. From Reuters (hat tip Scott):

Och-Ziff Capital Management Group LLC, the $31 billion hedge fund led by Daniel Och, recently told its investment partner, 643 Capital Management, that it wants to exit from the foreclosed homes business..

Earlier this year, proponents of investing in foreclosed homes were projecting a return of at least 8 percent a year from renting them out.

But the New York-based hedge fund is looking to sell now because the returns it is generating from rental income are less than expected and it is looking to take advantage of a recent rebound in home prices in northern California, the sources said. It?s not clear what kind of return Och-Ziff had expected to earn from renting out homes.

Other participants pooh-poohed the Ochs-Ziff exit as a sign of a someone lacking experience overestimating the potential returns and part of a natural weeding-out process. But the part I question (and so did some other seasoned investors I met at the conference) was not just the expense side, as in the cost and difficulty of managing dispersed homes, the exposure to property tax increases, but also the revenue side. Rental markets are hot right now precisely because people who were foreclosed upon still need housing, yet many of those houses have not been turned into rentals, creating a serious demand/supply imbalance. We have pressure on rentals being alleviated both by this conversion process, plus the recent uptick in home buying.

Gary Shilling is admittedly a famed bear; his housing price forecast is the most dire I?ve run across. But his argument about hidden housing inventories is directionally correct:

And as I have indicated before, it was striking at that recent housing conference to see that the servicers in attendance were also skeptical about the housing boom. It?s not hard to imagine that they have a good view of conditions on the ground and still don?t like what they see.

Source: http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/10/some-smart-money-is-already-exiting-the-single-family-rental-landgrab.html

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What Windows RT Can't Do

You probably know that Windows 8 comes in two different versions—Basic x86 Windows (this is what you use now) and Windows RT. They have similar names. They look the same. But there are serious differences between the two—ones you should know about before you plunk down your cold hard cash on a Microsoft tablet. More »

Source: http://feeds.gawker.com/~r/gizmodo/full/~3/fS7DLWFnZ1M/what-windows-rt-cant-do

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PFT: NFL didn't always mind teammates paying for hits

Getty Images

In the 1996 playoffs, Hall of Fame Packers defensive end Reggie White made a deal with his teammates: Make a big hit, and I?ll give you $500.

In its latest filing in the bounty case, a copy of which PFT has obtained, the NFLPA says that the NFL knew White was paying teammates for hits and allowed it to continue, and therefore is showing inconsistency now by suspending four players for a similar pay-for-performance program with the Saints.

The filing from the NFLPA in the bounty case discusses White?s ?Smash for Cash? program, which included $500 payments for big hits. At the time, according to the NFLPA, the NFL said the program was OK ?as long as players use their own money, amounts are not exorbitant and payments aren?t for illegal hits.?

The NFLPA says that the NFL?s rules haven?t changed since then, but the NFL?s PR agenda has.

?The fact that the NFL has a different agenda today than in 1996 can?t change the unequivocal language of the NFL Constitution and Bylaws, which has never prohibited this behavior,? the NFLPA says in its filing.

Although White?s ?Smash for Cash? program hasn?t often been brought up in connection with the Saints bounty case, White?s actions were no secret at the time. ESPN did a segment on White?s bonuses, the New York Daily News ran a headline declaring that White had offered to pay bounties, and in an Associated Press article from January of 1996, White is quoted as saying he handed out his entire $13,000 playoff bonus for a win over the 49ers to teammates.

?I gave them money for big hits,? White said. ?I don?t know if the money is any more motivation, but I know I paid out a lot.?

The Associated Press article says that White had already told his teammates it would be the same deal for the next playoff game, against the Cowboys, and that an NFL spokesman said there was nothing wrong with what White did, likening it to a quarterback buying gifts for his offensive linemen.

The NFL?s stance on that has changed quite a bit in 16 years.

Source: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/10/18/in-1996-nfl-was-ok-with-reggie-white-paying-teammates-for-hits/related

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Abbott shares scorched by kidney drug failure

(Reuters) - Abbott Laboratories Inc said its partner, Reata Pharmaceuticals, was discontinuing a late-stage trial of their potential blockbuster treatment for chronic kidney disease and diabetes based on safety concerns raised by an independent safety committee.

The news for bardoxolone, which sent Abbott shares down 6 percent, represents a major setback just months before the planned January 1 spinoff of Abbott's branded prescription drugs into a separate publicly traded company called AbbVie. Without the high-profile drug, Wall Street concerns about AbbVie's dependence on Abbott's $8 billion-a-year rheumatoid arthritis drug, Humira, could intensify.

An independent data-monitoring committee found excess serious adverse events and mortality in patients taking the oral anti-inflammatory drug, Abbott said in a regulatory filing.

Regulators were notified of the decision, and study participants were being informed, the company said.

Thursday's stock selloff followed similar stock declines on Wednesday after Abbott reported disappointing third-quarter sales of Humira and disclosed that AbbVie's annual tax rate will be far higher than investors had expected, undermining AbbVie's future earnings.

"The bardoxolone blow-up could not come at a worse time," Jefferies & Co analyst Jeffrey Holford said in a research note. "Investors were already reeling from yesterday's update on the tax rate for AbbVie and now one of the more visible pipeline assets has disappeared just the next day."

But Holford reiterated his "buy" rating on Abbott, saying the drug would not have driven cash flow at AbbVie for the next few years, and that the setback should not impair the new drugmaker's future dividend or valuation.

J.P. Morgan analyst Michael Weinstein said bardoxolone and Abbott's experimental treatments for hepatitis C stand out as the two potential "mutilbillion-dollar pipeline opportunities" for AbbVie.

Bardoxolone had been expected to deliver revenue that could cushion Abbott if rival arthritis drugs cut in to Humira's growth, and also offset plunging sales of older Abbott drugs losing patent protection, Weinstein said.

"Bardoxolone (is) coming out of our model," Weinstein said, meaning he is no longer expecting any sales from the drug.

Cowen and Co had estimated bardoxolone could generate annual sales of more than $1 billion in the overseas territories where Abbott has rights to the drug, citing a potential market of 400,000 dialysis patients in Europe.

Reata in September 2010 granted Abbott exclusive rights to develop bardoxolone outside the United States, excluding certain Asian markets.

Reata's drugs are designed to activate Nrf2, a protein believed to be a principal regulator of cellular antioxidation and detoxification enzymes, while suppressing NFkB, a primary regulator of inflammatory genes.

Abbott shares were down 5.7 percent at $65.11 on the New York Stock Exchange in late morning, after falling 4.4 percent on Wednesday.

(Reporting by Ransdell Pierson in New York, Esha Dey in Bangalore; editing by Sreejiraj Eluvangal, Theodore d'Afflisio and Matthew Lewis)

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/abbott-reata-kidney-disease-drug-trial-stopped-134112840--finance.html

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